Yet Another Harley Discuss

"Exage03040 @ opposite-lock.com" (exage03040) 07/30/2020 at 16:19 • Filed to: Harley-Davidson, Motorcycles, 2wheelsgood

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“We are streamlining our motorcycle models by approximately 30 percent with plans to further refine our product portfolio,” Zeitz said. “This enables us to invest in the products and platforms that matter the most while better balancing our investment in new, high-potential segments. In this context, we plan to expand our offering of iconic motorcycles, those which most embody the spirit of Harley-Davidson.”

On the Harley-Davidson website, !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! but when a financial analyst on the conference call asked for confirmation that the Bronx will be out early next year, Zeitz avoided answering.

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I’m actually sort of onboard with the portfolio reduction. Harley- Davidson currently lists over 30 different models of a V-Twin motorcycle, 3 trikes, and the electric motor LiveWire. If I’m honest they could thin this herd a little.

However what really troubles me is what they believe these “high- potential segments ” are . Now in the past I can argue that many times they’ve tried this and encountered active discrimination against the likes of Buell, V-Rod, XR1200 in recent past which have doomed them to the current continuance . Perhaps these were simply released at the wrong time with   people in the wrong mindset .

This topic has really been beaten so much that the horse is likely a source of crude to be tapped into, but H-D needs more diversification if the wish to continue producing 2-wheels. They don’t even need forgo the whole premium motorcycle act and certainly not Americana , they need to begin releasing models that are in trend with market demands (many have argued the Pan America is too late in this regard ) . If they want a greater global presence, I believe they will need more models with smaller water-cooled engines like the S treet series, but better . T hey need an engine smaller than the footprint of the 500-750cc Revolution-X and likewise with a smaller frame to hold said theoretical engine . T hey need to be better; they need to be Harley- Davidson, but on a diet .

Even in North America smaller bikes are very common around urban centres with newer riders fine tuning their right wrist and psyche. Playing into the latter has the potential to inspire brand loyalty. A loyalty that H-D obviously knows and panders to cherish.

Changing gears here, or perhaps motors... The LiveWire or perhaps H-D’s charge into electric motorcycles. What does this mean with regards to the rumours of trickle down tech from the showcase? I think the LiveWire route was a mistake to begin with, however that they went this way means that should continue to make use of the R&D jump for a less expensive model, especially with regards of having the DC Fast Charge tech.

2020 LiveWire

I know people have various takes on H-D. Some riders and the majority of non-riders would rather see the company go under than saved. I personally would rather have them stick around but in a significantly changed capacity than what they currently conjure in terms of the ridership and models offered. So while the news is presented pessimistically by Revzilla, I’m not quite ready to discount this move yet. I feel it’s heavily dependent on what the shift entails with future focus. H-D just better hope this time that focus is correct and will be embraced.

How do you like your potatoes?

gettingoldercarguy > Exage03040 @ opposite-lock.com 07/30/2020 at 16:24

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I think motorcycles will make a comeback in the near future.

Dr_Watson > Exage03040 @ opposite-lock.com 07/30/2020 at 16:33

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“we plan to expand our offering of iconic motorcycles, those which most embody the spirit of Harley-Davidson”

That sounds like code for: we’re doubling down on the stereotyped market to bleed it until they’re dead and there’s enough young demand for electrics.

Exage03040 @ opposite-lock.com > Dr_Watson 07/30/2020 at 16:50

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There’s certainly some really mixed messaging going on with the statements. Initially I was writing this post with much your sentiment after watching the video and a quicker skim through the written.

I’m hoping that I’m reading more between the lines that they’re going for reduction in areas they should but diversifying to others. I’m not sure ADV is really a good start and I questioned the Bronx as well, but these are carry over...

MeatSaber > Exage03040 @ opposite-lock.com 07/30/2020 at 16:55

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Harley really backed themselves into a corner with the 40 year love affair that catered to the boomers. They gotta either start making them more attainable or making them as premium as their price tags would suggest. There is just no getting around the fact they aren't going to be as big a player as they have been the last few decades. 

Pickup_man > Exage03040 @ opposite-lock.com 07/30/2020 at 17:10

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I think this is a short sited, short term move that is only going to further their demise. Streamlining the current line makes some sense because they do have a lot of models that are essentially small variations of the same platform. I can see this pleasing investors because they’re now focused on their most profitable models and “trimming the fat”. This doesn’t solve the problem though that Harley is a one trick pony making bikes purely for a shrinking segment. They still dominate that segment, but it’s shrinking none the less. The more roads to Harley plan under Levatitch might have been a bit ambitious, but the concepts they released during that time were all very compelling concepts that drew a lot of positive attention. I’ve always had an appreciation for Harleys and still wouldn’t mind owning one , but those concepts had me actively excited to own a Harley. Now though that most of those future models have been cut? I’m done with Harley , there is nothing left they can do to excite me and the desire for anything but a vintage model is completely gone. I’ll take my money to Indian where they’re not afraid to innovate and diversify their lineup. 

slipperysallylikespenguins > Exage03040 @ opposite-lock.com 07/30/2020 at 17:12

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This was my response from a similar conversation back in March:

Harley just needs to downsize it’s sales estimates. They are still selling over 200k bikes a year, with about 140K selling in the U.S. In 2017 consumers bought 472k street bikes. So Harley has over a 25% market share in the overall US market and nearly a 50% market share in the heavyweight category.

The only reason people are freaking out about their  sales is that they are down from the 2007 record year, just like most manufacturers. Harley could sell 100k of their bikes a year for the next decade without any real changes and it would be considered a massive success as a motorcycle company if expectations weren’t so high. Shareholders and the press just want growth for the sake of growth and that is not sustainable for a niche hobby company.

I think introducing all these new products that very few people asked for and even fewer will pay the Harley premium for will ultimately do more harm than if they just reset their sales targets. The idea of them continuing to sell 200-300k bikes a year is insane, the market just can’t support it.

It is kind of amusing that every one is proclaiming the death of Harley when they sell more than twice the street bikes as any other company in the US. Some other figures as of 2016 I believe:

Harley has 60% of all women riders in the US.

The average age of a NEW Harley buyer is 49, a bit high but they also have the most money. The average age of all motorcycle owners regardless of brand is actually 47.

Only 25% of riders are between 25 and 40. This is affecting every company as young people just aren’t as interested in motorcycles as much.

Numbers have changed for the worse in the past few months across the entire market but the message is still the same. Harley is still a massively successful company that’s only problem is being a publicly traded entity. 

nermal > Exage03040 @ opposite-lock.com 07/30/2020 at 17:14

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Sounds like they’re just regressing into the same old ideas that got them here in the first place.

Ducati sells a bazillion Scramblers, all the cheapest in their range. They also still sell $30k Panigales. BMW sells an even cheaper $6k 300-class bike, and that hasn’t hurt the sales of $25k GS ADVs. Point being that it’s possible to do “ premium downmarket” and succeed without “cheapening” the brand.

HD had the right idea with the electric bikes, the ~500cc bikes, and I thought they had a great idea in starting kids riding very young with the Stacyc. It appears as though they will be throwing all of that away, again, just like with Buell.

onlytwowheels > Exage03040 @ opposite-lock.com 07/30/2020 at 17:29

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Okay, I guess I’ll join in the discussion today.

H-D is currently developing an air-cooled, pushrod, twin with variable valve timing. So air cooled engines are going to be in their line up for many more years. See: https://www.cycleworld.com/story/motorcycle-news/harley-developing-v-twin-with-variable-valve-timing/

Next, H-D does need to trim it’s line up. Too many variations of the same model. Back when they could sell all they could build and still having a waiting list, they left the bike customizing for the buyer, dealer or specialty shop to handle. Basically they sold you the canvas to create your own masterpiece.The H-D accessory catalog was thick and the dealer would generally let you choose the items that you wanted installed prior to delivery. The aftermarket for Harley’s is virtually without limits, so if the factory didn’t offer what you liked, it was likely available elsewhere. They need to return to this.

A lot of what they do involves swapping out bars, exhaust, sheet metal, wheels and tires and level of shiny bits. The number of wheel size and styles they fit on individual models today alone makes zero sense. Same with the rest of the list. Small batch quantity is always going to mean inventory headaches and higher pricing.

Finally, the entry level, smaller displacement models need more attention, acceptance and marketing. The 500 Street seems to have disappeared already. They need to offer a trade in program on 883 or 1200cc and under like they did in the 80's with the 883 Sportster. Essentially giving the amount paid towards a larger displacement H-D if purchased within 2 years.

So, trim parts bin models and add entry level offers to increase brand interest.

Exage03040 @ opposite-lock.com > Pickup_man 07/30/2020 at 17:32

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In a way it sort of sounds like they may have some doubts about continuing with those other models shown (like the Bronx and Flat Tracker) that weren’t the Pan America. H-D sure wouldn’t specify which isn’t great.

I want to see in the near future for what plan and focus shift on for segments. They’ve been playing catch- up with trends and rival Indian lately .

Exage03040 @ opposite-lock.com > nermal 07/30/2020 at 17:37

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Completely agree. I’ve wanted them to do sort of a premium version of a Honda Rebel in the way of a 400-500cc Iron 883 and have a ‘tracker sport variant.

Exage03040 @ opposite-lock.com > onlytwowheels 07/30/2020 at 17:47

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It’s a good point. The models don’t need to maybe go away they should maybe offer them as options and the like sort of like going on the Ducati or Triumph websites where you can deck out them out from the factory with what you want. Or buy it base and go aftermarket or custom to hearts content.

I like that trade-in deal, that’s a neat option for brand loyalty, turn-over and trade-up.

I don’t want to bash the Street series but I feel it’s just not up to par. Not only for H-D but overall. And it’s a shame because I think they should have a really decent starter bike to offer instead of having to skirt customers away to the Sportster .

Pickup_man > Exage03040 @ opposite-lock.com 07/30/2020 at 17:59

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I’m not surprised they have their doubts because they’re pretty big departures for the brand. I think a big departure, plus advancing their current models is exactly what they need.

Let’s use Indian for example. While they started off as a gaudy vintage retro brand to get their foot in the door, they quickly added modern flair to those vintage models, came out with a modern tech retro styled cruiser with the Scout, then dove right into the sport/flattracker segment with the FTR which is very different than the rest of their lineup. Then there’s the Challenger. Performance baggers have been a thing for a while now, and are still very hot, Indian (rather Polaris since the Challenger started as a Victory project) noticed this and is now capitalizing. Harley though? They just kept making the same old Street Glides, Road Kings and Road Glides letting the aftermarket get all of that sweet upgrade money. Throwing on a good set of suspension, brakes, and some engine goodies would not have been hard, yet, they did nothing. This is why I don’t have a lot of faith in their new plan. 

DipodomysDeserti > nermal 07/30/2020 at 19:46

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Also, this is a brand that owes it’s name to flat trackers, criminals and assholes like Eve l Knievel (RIP).

There’s no cheapening the brand.  They need to embrace their roots, and let the old poseurs fund our cheap V twins.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > slipperysallylikespenguins 07/30/2020 at 21:53

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I’d be curious what the conquest sales are vs other brands. I know 2 folks that go out and buy a new harley and only a harley every 5 years

nermal > DipodomysDeserti 07/31/2020 at 09:25

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How was Evel Knievel an asshole?

HD’s branding is more towards a rebellious attitude that attracts 40-60 yr old dudes that are having a midlife crisis. Middle-management corporate stiffs with disposable income that want to feel like they’re not.... middle management corporate stiffs . The problem with this is that people under 40 are still buying bikes, they’re just cheap small displacement models. Also, upcoming dudes having a midlife crisis are buying ADV bikes. 

DipodomysDeserti > nermal 07/31/2020 at 10:25

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Evel was the first to admit that he was an asshole.